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Anakinra exposure and conditional CRP turnover

Apparent subcutaneous anakinra exposure inhibits empirical CRP production. Fixed responder and waning-sensitivity groups distinguish sustained suppression from rebound under a constant or PK-derived concentration driver.

Anakinra pharmacokinetics in children and adolescents with systemic-onset juvenile idiopathic arthritis and autoinflammatory syndromes ↗
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How do response and resistance contexts change the modeled CRP signal?

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10 kg, 2 mg/kg/day apparent SC

How does bodyweight-projected apparent SC exposure change under a fixed daily administered dose?

0–720 h

10 kg, 2 mg/kg/day apparent SC

How does bodyweight-projected apparent SC exposure change under a fixed daily administered dose?

Readouts

PK derived anakinra concentration · mg/L
Apparent plasma PK concentration central/(V/F); zero in constant-driver cases without SC dosing.
Conditional crp concentration · mg/L
Fixed group baseline times normalized CRP response; empirical biomarker output, not patient prediction.

Study purpose

  • How does bodyweight-projected apparent SC exposure change under a fixed daily administered dose?

Assumptions

  • Uses fixed effects without individual or population variability.
  • Clearance and volume are apparent CL/F and V/F. Physical bioavailability is unknown.
  • Baseline groups are fixed scenarios, not mixture probabilities. Waning sensitivity is not resistance prevalence.
  • Imposed concentration drives CRP directly, without PK or exposure outputs. Clearance and absorption affect SC scenarios only.
  • Ranges are exploratory. Editing clearance alone does not simulate a weight change; absorption and turnover span 0.5–1.5× defaults, and sensitivity loss spans 0–1.5× RESI.
  • Weight is set by the starting configuration. Clearance edits leave dose and volume unchanged.
  • No complete source figure panel is reproduced. Calculations use the rounded Table 1 coefficient set. Literal Table 2 uncertainty entries and reported group proportions are retained as source references; they do not establish fitted uncertainty or mixture probabilities for this implementation.
  • Changing start time resets initial states and omits earlier doses. Observations retain their before- or after-dose timing.
  • Long-term trajectories are model extrapolations without observed long-term validation.

Reference data

  • Patient observations, between-occasion variability, the mixed-effects fit, and prediction intervals have not been reproduced.

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Simulation time
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h
720 → 168

Time between reported samples.

h
6 → 1

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Biology

Apparent subcutaneous anakinra exposure inhibits empirical CRP production. Fixed responder and waning-sensitivity groups distinguish sustained suppression from rebound under a constant or PK-derived concentration driver.

Apparent subcutaneous anakinra exposure inhibits empirical CRP production. Fixed responder and waning-sensitivity groups distinguish sustained suppression from rebound under a constant or PK-derived concentration driver.

Model details

9 parameters · 6 states · 6 equations · 9 derived outputs

Classification & API access
Therapeutic
anakinra
Modality
Other biologic or therapeutic modality
Target
IL1R1
Disease / scope
systemic juvenile idiopathic arthritis, autoinflammatory syndromes
ParameterDefaultUnitDescription
Baselinebaseline141mg/LFixed group baseline CRP, not fitted individual baseline. Envelope covers frozen private cases, not public scan or fitting bounds.
C50c500.03mg/LConcentration for half initial inhibition of CRP production. Envelope covers frozen private cases, not public scan or fitting bounds.
Systemic clearancecl6.24L/hApparent clearance CL/F, projected from source bodyweight; physical bioavailability unknown. Exploratory control; interpretation depends on the selected context.
Imposed PD concentrationconstant_c0mg/LExternally imposed PD concentration only when mode is one. Exploratory control; interpretation depends on the selected context.
Absorption rate constantka0.381/hFirst-order SC absorption rate. Exploratory control; interpretation depends on the selected context.
Loss of effect sensitivitykresi01/hDecay rate of remaining drug-effect sensitivity; zero for RESP and 0.0048/day for RESI. Exploratory control; interpretation depends on the selected context.
Crp turnover ratektr0.001751/hEmpirical CRP turnover rate, converted from day to hour. Exploratory control; interpretation depends on the selected context.
Modemode0—Fixed diagnostic switch: zero uses PK-derived concentration, one supplies constant_c. Intermediate mixtures are unqualified. Envelope covers frozen private cases, not public scan or fitting bounds.
Central distribution volumevc65.2LApparent volume V/F, projected from source bodyweight; physical distribution volume unidentified. Envelope covers frozen private cases, not public scan or fitting bounds.

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